30 August 2021: EURCHF (long)

 EURCHF long trade

Pre-Analysis:-

Strength Number: EURCHF (+3 / -7) CHF is very weak

Fundamental:- No news event for both currencies.

Market Territory:- Price traded under buyer's territory.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(correlation / strength number & market territory support this long trade. only fundamental show no data to support this trade. therefore I class this trade as B class trade.)

The pullback:-

- There is no much selling pressure as we look at M15 chart

- All small sellers unable to break lower.

- Finally there is buyers kind of aggressive as shown in label (A) up move.

- After seller failed again following the buyer at (A), then I took an entry after that.

Entry:- 1.08124 (10:22pm)

Lot size:- 0.01

Stop:- 1.07954 (17 pips)

Exit:- 1.08464 close trade at 2R profit

Post Analysis:-

- I took this trade for 0.01 lot only as my training on how to manage a trade.

- The set up kind of not convincing me to take at normal risk that I practice.

- Price went up very slow and the trade was not going anywhere.

- Finally at 12:22 midnight I decided to close this trade, it did not perform at all.

- Max price went to 0.74R only.

27 August 2021 (sample trade): AUDCHF (long)

 This is sample trade that can be taken on 27 August 2021, AUDCHF long trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Strength Number:- AUDCHF (+7 / -3) AUD stronger than CHF, but I think AUD is not the strongest is compare to CHF.

Fundamental:- AUD news event was negative, retail sales (mom) (Jul) (-2.7% / -2.3% / -1.8%). While for CHF there is no news event.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

(although AUD is stronger than CHF but it is not the strongest & fundamental has conflict for this long trade. therefore I class this trade as C)

- AUDCHF broke Asia session & I should wait for pullback, read the pullback carefully & time my entry at the very logical point. 

- There was quite a long range (meaning that no activity).

- Then there is small range forming.

- That small range was broken to downside (this will activate sellers).

- But the price jump back up immediately (a probe), this can be an entry point.

- As this is C class trade, therefore plan for exit at 1R profit.

Post Analysis:-

- The 1R profit reach easily.

- Max profit around 1.65R.

- I purposely choose this trade as an example because, it happen in front of me while I am observing the AUD group of currencies.

- I need to always remember this, if you are going to buy you need sellers and vice versa. 

- I not trade this set-up simply because previous day actual trade was bad I lost more than $100 and this put me into state of fear (fear of losing). 

- Need more control on emotion/psychology.

26 August 2021: EURCHF (long trade)

 Trade on 26 Aug 2021, EURCHF

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation: EURCHF (10 / 1)

Session Breaks:- EUR broke Asia session with strong sentiment (6 pairs). For CHF, it broke Asia session with weak sentiment (7 pairs).

Fundamental:- No news event for both currencies.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(correlation & session breaks support this long trade. no data on fundamental . therefore I rate this trade as B trade.)

Pullback:-

- Notice 3 time sellers try to push price down, all failed.

-The third try it failed and made a lower high before forming a range.

- As price broke high on that range, I took a trade.

Entry:- 1.07895 (7:53pm)

Lot Size:- 0.76

Stop:- 1.07775 (12 pips)

Risk:- 1% ($ 100)

Exit:- 2R profit

Post Analysis:-

- Loss trade 

- My condition at this trade affected by previous trade USDCHF that lost.

- As price came down fast toward my stop, I feel uncomfortable and fear that it will hit stop and another loss trade.

- If I let this trade hit stop, than for this trading day I might loss more than $ 100 (bigger than 1% of  account balance).

- I decided to close trade as fear hijacked my mind completely.

- This trade ended loss $ 62.99.

- This show if I made mistake on previous trade (my entry was wrong), than the impact on the next trade will be huge. Here is example when I was very fearful and ended up lose.

- The correct trade management was, let this trade run and it may end with small profit or worse case break even.

- This trade also not performing. For the entire day this trade will not give much profit.

26 August 2021: USDCHF (long)

 Long trade USDCHF 26 August 2021

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- USDCHF (8 / 1), USD stronger than CHF

Session Breaks:- USD broke Asia session with strong sentiment. (5 pairs). For CHF, it broke Asia session with weak sentiment (6 pairs)

Fundamental:- no news event for both currency.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(no news event to support this trade, therefore I class this trade as B)

Pullback detail:-

- 3 sellers action marked with circle as shown on above chart.

- all sellers failed to make lower low.

- after third try price jump up aggressive.

- price made range after that, entry inside this range.

Entry:- 0.91748 (5:00pm)

Lot Size:- 0.51

Stop:- 0.91568 (18 pips)

Risk:- 1% ($100)

Exit:- TP at 2R

Post Analysis:-

- I made mistake here on my entry.

- look at the range, it did not break up to the north but came down and lower.

- I should only take this trade if price broke higher from range.

- I closed trade before it hit my stop, this reduce a little bit of loss.

- a good entry can be taken somewhere in (A) area.

- there is range also develop but it broke lower again.

- after an attempt to go lower but immediately price get up again, candle form like a 'railroad track', this can be use as entry point.

- after entry at that area, trade can be manage to secure at least small profit.

- it did not perform well for this trade but for sure with more sharp skill, loss can be avoided.

- obviously trade was not ready yet when I took it.

- so far preparation seem to be ok but timing on entry got issue, need more practice and experience.

25 August 2021 (Sample Trade): AUDJPY (long)

 Sample trade that can be taken on 25 August 2021, AUDJPY long trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- AUDJPY (12 / 1), very obvious AUD stronger than JPY

Session Breaks:- AUD broke Asia session with strong sentiment.(4 pairs) JPY broke Asia session with weak sentiment (6 pairs). the power on AUD was not high as only 4 pairs broke Asia session, we need at least 5 pairs.

Fundamental:- there was no news event for both AUD & JPY

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

( only correlation show convincing data, while session breaks lack of power on AUD side, therefore this trade is C class.)

- as C trade, entry can be with only half of the risk or take on full (1%) risk but target for easy 1R only.

Pullback:-

- all sellers marked with circle as above, all attempt of seller failed

- one shock buyer came in broke the previous swing high, then immediately form a range.

- price broke range aggressively to above, that where entry can be initiate.

Post analysis:-

- max profit 2.14R (for entire trading day)

- I miss this trade even though I saw this set up happen, I unable to take this trade.

- What when wrong? as I loss on NZDCHF trade previously, I got frustrated and decided to call it off for that day.

- I decided not to take any trade & watch football match.

- While watching football I still peep into the chart and saw AUDJPY set up.

- I check all the data regarding AUDJPY and it shows a trade may has potential, but as I decided early not to take trade then it fly up without me.

- it seem that my working hours need to be set from 2:00pm till midnight, between that time no nothing such as movie, YouTube, football match etc. 

- miss another good trade

- seem like trade that I took did not perform well but trade that I missed perform fantastically.

25 August 2021: NZDCHF (long trade)

 NZDCHF long trade

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- NZDCHF (14/4), 

Session Breaks:- NZD broke Asia session with strong sentiment (4 pairs). While CHF broke NY session with weak sentiment (5 pairs). Notice on different session breaks.

Fundamental:- NZD news on 24 Aug 2021, retail sales (qoq) (q2) is better 3.3% compare to previous quarter 2.8%.

No news for CHF.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(correlation & fundamental news give confident for NZDCHF long trade. but session breaks a bit not align as NZD group broke Asia session while CHF broke NY session. therefore B class trade was classified.)

Entry:-

Pullback:-

- all sellers marked with (1) (2) (3) (4). sellers unable to make lower low

- small range develop just after seller (4) failed, first entry (A) initiate after that range.

- second entry at (B)

Risk:- 

Trade (A) with 1% risk

Trade (B) with 0.5% risk

Post Analysis:-

- entry was not good

- should not entry for second time

- re-look entry at before seller (4), as shock buyer perform before seller (3), small range occur after that also there is probe went down the small range.

- if entry was made at that point, this trade will give profit provided stay hold onto it even the price try to come back down.

- trade (A) if I hold, it will hit stop anyway.

- trade (B) I have no explanation why I made it, this need to be avoided.

- this is example of a trade that has potential to profit but lack of skill will lead to poor entry and will also damage your account.

24 August 2021 (Sample Trade): USDCAD (short)

 Sample trade that can be taken on 24 August 2021, USDCAD short trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- USDCAD (1 / 12)

Market State:- price at seller's territory

Session Breaks:- USD broke Asia session with weak sentiment (6 pairs). CAD broke Asia session with strong sentiment (5 pairs).

Fundamental:- a few medium impact news for USD released yesterday (23 Aug 2021), it show weak sentiment for USD.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- A trade

(correlation, market state, session breaks & fundamental back this long trade, therefore an A class trade was classified)

Entry:-

- pullback details: this pullback happen in 2 stage, first buyer overtaken by seller as marked with (A).

- then price went back up again but unable to make higher high, that is the obvious sign buyers unable to perform.

- consolidation form after that & entry can be taken inside the area.

Post Analysis:-

- max profit around 2R

- unable to monitor this trade and miss it, my mind was not clear yesterday night.

23 August 2021 (Sample Trade): USDCAD (short)

 Sample trade that can be taken on 23 August 2021, USDCAD short trade.

- trade perform immediately after entry point.

- trade able to reach 2R profit smoothly.

- max profit around 3R for that entire trading day.

23 August 2021: CADJPY (long trade)

 CADJPY long trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- CADJPY (9 / 4). stronger for CAD

Market Territory:- price traded under buyer's territory

Session Breaks:- CAD broke NY session with strong sentiment (6 pairs). While JPY broke NY session with weak sentiment (7 pairs).

Fundamental:- news favor CAD as on Friday (previous trading day) data core retail sales (mom) (Jun) was (4.7% / 4.6% / -2.0%).

While on Monday data for JPY services PMI  (Aug) show contraction 43.5 compared to previous release 47.4

Trading Plan:-

Trade classification:- A trade

(all factors back this CADJPY long trade, therefore an A class trade was classified)

Entry:-

Pullback details:- the sell marked with circle, all sell did not perform. until all sell taken out by aggressive buyers and after that price form sort of consolidation. the entry taken inside consolidation area.

Entry:- 86.290 (5:02 pm)

Lot Size:- 0.68

Stop:- 16 pips (86.130)

Risk:- 1% ($ 100)

Exit:- take profit at 2R (86.620), pre-set TP

Post Analysis:-

- entry was good, price immediately went up. happy with my timing.

- at 5:44pm as price went up, I reduce risk to half.

- after price try to come back down toward my entry, price jump back up. this time after price reach 1R profit, I move stop to BE (7.34pm)

- price continue to went up until very close to TP price but went down again. at 7:54pm I lock profit at 1R by moving the stop again.

- finally at 8:27pm price hit my stop and trade close at $ 98.85 profit close to 1R.

- price eventually went up until max of 2.95R for entire session trading yesterday.

- need improvement on exiting the trade.

- one more thing I need to consider put stop tighter as this was an A class trade. this will give better RR ratio. (but this also increasing chances of being hit)

20 August 2021 (Sample Trade): EURGBP & GBPCHF

 Sample trade that can be taken on 20 August 2021, EURGBP (long trade) & GBPCHF (short trade). Both trade was purely technical trade. One additional information is on news fundamental for GBP, retail sales (mom) (Jul) release bad for GBP (-2.5% / 0.4% / 0.2%). This news release give back-up for both trade that show weakness in GBP

EURGBP (long trade):-

GBPCHF (short trade):-

Note:- I am unable to take this trade as the set-up appear at or after midnight.