28 July 2021: NZDUSD (short trade)

Sample trade that can be taken on 28 July 2021.

Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- NZDUSD (3 / 11)

Market State:- price traded on down channel & price near the top channel, thus short trade was very logical.

Session:- NZD broke Asia session (weak). 5 pairs

Fundamental:- USD news sentiment was strong, there was CB Consumer Confident released & sentiment was strong for USD.

Trading Plan:-

Trade classification:- A trade

Entry:- wait for pullback/digestion & entry in money spot area

Exit:- as A class trade, exit follow trailing profit. be aware of FOMC news release at 2:00 am

Chart:-

Post Analysis:-

27 July 2021: EURNZD (long trade)

 Sample trade that can be taken on 27 July 2021.

Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- EURNZD (6 / 5), tight correlation.

Market State:- referring to H4 chart, price traded on a big range and price traded near the bottom of the range. This shows long trade was logic.

Session:- NZD broke the Asia session (weak) on all of it pairs.

Fundamental:- there was no new fundamental news released, all news sentiment was about 1 or 2 weeks old.

Trading Plan:-

Trade classification:- B trade

Entry:- wait for pullback/digestion & money spot.

Exit:- trail the profit for max 

Time of entry:- around 8:00pm (NY opening)

Chart:-

Post Analysis:-

My mistake:-

- I did not focus on market opening in this case NY opening.

- I need to prepare 30 minutes before opening hours be it NY or Frankfurt/London.

27 July 2021: NZDCHF (short)

 Sample trade that can be taken on 27 July 2021.

Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- NZDCHF (5 / 10)

Market State:- price traded on seller territory as shown on H4 chart.

Session:- nzdchf pair broke NY session low during Asia session. pullback started and digested towards Frankfurt opening. 2 pairs shown same session break characteristic.

Fundamental:- no recent news released all other news was old news back from last week and last 2 week.

Trading Plan:- 

Trade classification:- C trade

Entry:- wait for pullback and digestion / entry at money spot / range.

Exit:- as a C trade exit could be taken at recent low.

Time of entry: 3:00pm (Frankfurt opening)

Chart:-

Post Analysis:-

- Trade could be taken on 3:00pm (Frankfurt opening), the outcome could be a massive max 7.7R

- Another money spot at pink area can be an entry point (London opening time).

- Price broke Asia session and pullback / digest, price continue to drop during NY session.

What was my mistake:-

- Late to make analysis, all pre analysis must be min 30 min. before Frankfurt opening.

- I missed this trade due to lack of focus, my focus distracted by Olympic game. Please focus on your work to be a better trader.

23 Jul 2021: NZDCAD (long trade)

 Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- tight correlation between NZD & CAD (4 / 3)

Market Structure:- price traded on upward channel as on H4 chart. price now on the bottom of channel thus logic for long trade.

Session:- majority of NZD pairs broke NY session during Asia session. 5 pairs broke that level

Fundamental:- NZD news sentiment was strong while CAD sentiment & oil sentiment was weak. but CAD pending one news release on 8:30pm. sentiment wise for long trade on NZDCAD but correlation only tightly support.

Trade Classification:- C trade

Post Analysis:-

My mistake:- 

- while prepare for entry I failed to plan for exit. there was no plan for exit.

- what should be a proper plan?, as the correlation was very tight trade need booster from news release in this case CAD need to be weak so that NZD can surge.

- if CAD release strong then exit should be at the nearest landmine or supply zone as mark in the above chart. the CAD news was strong and price unable to surge high.

- my entry this time once again give me problem, I was tempted with the candle surge up as marked in blue color on the chart. I should wait until price give some short of range as marked by yellow circle.

- if entry initiate at the area of yellow circle potential 1.7R trade can be achieve.

This trade only give me roughly 0.33R, it definitely can give more than that. I risked $98 but only able to get $30.

Improvement:- timing the entry & exit plan.

22 Jul 2021: EURUSD (short trade)

 This was trade example that may be taken on 22 Jul 2021 (Thursday), this trade was a probe trade.

Pre Analysis:-

Fundamental news:- news for USD was good since last Friday data from retail sales released. but today data on unemployment claims that released 8:30pm my time was little bit bad. thus the sentiment for USD was mixed. while EUR news was also no clear cut sentiment. Overall sentiment was neutral so trade can go both long or short.

Correlation:- EURUSD (7 / 13) which show suitable for short trade. USD show strength compared to EUR.

Market Structure:- refer to H4 chart, the price trade on what looks like downtrend channel and this confirm the correlation for EURUSD short.

Session:- when news for EUR released, price broke Asia session level and surge to long trade, but immediately pullback down and came back to initial level of Asia. Thus this show probing setup and probably go down to a short trade.

Trade classification: B trade

Post Analysis:-

Potential 2.19R trade 

This was a probe trade.

21 Jul 2021: AUDNZD (short)

 Pre Analysis:-

Fundamental news:- bad news from retail sales mom (-1.8% / -0.5% / 0.4%), while NZD posed strong news from CPI report. This will be good for short trade direction.

Correlation:- strength meter AUDNZD (1 / 5), this acceptable for short trade as NZD stronger than AUD.

Market/chart structure:- price very near to the bottom after dropped as a trend. a little bit risk

Session:- price already broke the NY session during Asia session. 

Trade classification:- B trade. 

Post Analysis:-

- Trade closed with only 0.16R instead of max 2R trade as of closing day.

- After trade went to broke Asia session I went to move the stop to breakeven.

- Comment on money spot (MS) area, I think the actual MS was in pink color area not the blue area. Note that my emotion shaken when the price surge up aggressively and almost close the trade immediately.

- After price broke Asia session, I decided to close the trade as price surge up aggressively towards my entry point. That was my mistake.

- Emotion:- mix with the worried of losing this trade, and decide to close.

- Alternative plan:- wait for the price to reach 1R and move the stop for breakeven. While the price still not reach 1R reduce the risk/ move stop to half of the original risk. In this trade stop from 12 pips reduce to 6 pips. In this case your trade will still stay as the next price reverse not hit stop.

- Improvement needed. Although the pre analysis looks all correct but when come to implementation, my emotion was not in good order.

- Alternative trade:- there was other very good trade & setup appear eg. NZDJPY (long) & EURNZD (short).

19 Jul 2021: AUDJPY (short)

This was potential trade that can be taken on 19 July 2021 (Monday)

Pre Analysis:-

Fundamental news:- none

Correlation:- AUDJPY (1 / 13) short trade bias

Market structure:- AUD broke previous day level (weak) on 4 pairs. while JPY broke previous day level (strong) on 4 pairs.

Chart Analysis are below:-

Post Analysis:-

16 Jul 2021: AUDNZD (short)

 This was possible trade that can be taken on 16 July 2021.

Pre Analysis:-

- Fundamental: NZD strong as CPI q/q result (1.3% / 0.7% / 0.8%). All NZD shows strong.

- Correlation: AUDNZD (1 / 4), correlation not decent.

- Market structure: a little bit room to go down as shown on daily chart. price also broke pervious day low.

- Pullback happen during London session, price digestion until near NY open.

Daily chart:-

H4 chart:-

 H1 chart:-

M15 chart:-

M5 chart (entry point):-

Post Analysis:- 

Closed Position Chart