20 Sept 2021: AUDNZD

 AUDNZD short trade base on cheese trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength:- AUDNZD (-6 / 0). NZD looks like a neutral currency.

Fundamental:- NZD has news event that show strength from last week.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

(NZD looks neutral and news event is from last week data, therefore this trade is C class.)

- Digestion:-

- As C trade I target only 1R profit.

- Risk 1% ($100)

Post Analysis:-

- I scratch this trade as it did not work. But the loss not touch my original stop. (less loss)

- Here where the situation of BRAIN BEEN HIJACKED. My thought only seen this pair only, while there was another pair that set-up better than this.

- Need to scan all pair, it is a must so that I can make comparison between all pairs and choose the best pair to trade.

- Below is NZDCAD for long trade that perform and give huge profit.

17 Sept 2021 (Trade Example): AUDNZD

 AUDNZD long trade base on cheese trade.

Pre Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength:- AUDNZD (+6 / -2)

Fundamental:- News event show AUD weaker than NZD. This may give conflict as session breaks show AUD stronger than NZD.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

- As C trade class, take profit at 1R only.

Post Analysis:-

- This trade able to give max 1.09R profit.

- Type C trade should be taken with extra careful. Look at price after hit 1R, it drops significantly.

- Need very close monitoring for this kind of trade.

- If no other choice of trade available, then this trade could be alternative.

16 Sept 2021 (Trade Example): AUDNZD

 Trade example on 16 Sept 2021, AUDNZD short trade base on cheese trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength:- AUDNZD (-2 / +6)

Fundamental:- News event for NZD show strength, GDP q/q (2.8% / 1.1% / 1.4%). For AUD news show weakness.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- A trade

- Wait for digestion, inability for price to go up & finally range that forming close to market opening Frankfurt / London.

- Reminder, reading digestion must from M15 timeframe.

Post Analysis:-

- Max profit 2.33R

- Trade smoothly went to intended target of 2R.

- As a reminder please make prep sharp, at least 30 minute before Frankfurt opening.

15 Sept 2021 (Trade Example): AUDJPY

 AUDJPY short trade base on cheese trade

Pre-Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength: Trade (1) AUDJPY (-2 / +6), trade (2) AUDJPY (-2 / +7)

Fundamental:- no news event for both currencies.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

Trade (1) entry:-

Post Analysis:-

- In real trade please don't read digestion from M3 timeframe, read from M15 timeframe. Slow down or finish of digestion must be seen on M15 timeframe.

- Trade (1) is totally wrong from point of reading digestion.

- Look that trade took out your stop then finally went down

- Trade (2) is the correct spot to enter, after digestion and inability for price to go up then range forming.

- Max profit for trade (2) 2.66R

9 Sept 2021 (Trade Example): GBPCAD

 This is trade example on 9 Sept 2021. GBPCAD long trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength:- GBPCAD (+5 / -6)

Fundamental:- no news event for both GBP & CAD

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

Pullback details:-

- Price down at one time before surge up aggressive as marked with (A).

- After price up at (A), then sellers tried a few times to push down but failed.

- Then came close to NY session, entry could be taken.

Post Analysis:-

- This trade did not work.

- If this trade is real, then it need to be manage carefully.

- There was an attempt to go higher but failed.

- After price failed to go higher, trade need monitoring. Decision should be made to close the trade when price return to original entry price & breach it lower.

- Trade can be close at half of the risk taken.

- The worse case scenario, trade will hit stop level.

- Did I read it wrong for this trade?

8 Sept 2021 (Trade Example): USDCAD (long)

 USDCAD long trade on 8 Sept. 2021, base on cheese trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength:- USDCAD (+4 / -6)

Fundamental:- no news event for USD, CAD pending interest rate announcement.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

Pullback / digestion:-

- Pullback came in very slow which is good.

- Spike happen after release of interest rate news for CAD.

- Spike as probably because not enough seller for buyers to lift price up.

- This spike could be good spot for entry.

Post Analysis:-

- Spike is good spot for entry but need to align with context.

- In this example the context was after price broke Asia session than pullback that happen very slow, this show buyers maybe in control.

- Pullback is needed for better entry price rather than entry after break of session, concept of discount.

- Max profit 3.91R

- I did not take this trade as I am waiting for my repeat challenge of FTMO account. I passed all criteria except for total profit therefore I am entitle for free repeat of challenge.

- Next challenge will be my 6th time.

7 Sept 2021 (Trade Example): USDJPY

 USDJPY long trade base on cheese trade on 7 Sept 2021

Session Breaks Strength:- USDJPY (+5 / -1)

Fundamental:- no current news event for both currencies.

Trade Classification:- B trade

2 Sept 2021 (Trade Sample): USDCAD (short)

 Trade sample on 2 Sept 2021. USDCAD short trade base on cheese trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength:- USDCAD (-4 / +1), CAD stronger than USD

Fundamental:- no news event for both currencies.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

Post Analysis:-

2 Sept 2021: AUDUSD (long trade)

 AUDUSD long trade (cheese trade)

Pre-Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength: AUDUSD (+7 / -5)

Fundamental:- For AUD there is good news release on GDP and for today trade balance (Jul) release show very good result (12.117B / 10.200B / 10.496B). While for USD news was not good, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (374K / 613K / 326K)

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- A trade

(strength no. good & support by fundamental, therefore I class this trade as A)

Entry:- 0.73882 (4:51pm)

Lot Size:- 0.83

Stop:- 0.73762 (12 pips)

Risk:- 1% ($ 100)

Exit: set at 2R profit

Post Analysis:-

- I am confident when this set up appear.

- Look back at entry point, am I enter early?

- Before this trade take off, 3 times price came back down.

- This drop may shake your confident whether this trade will work or not.

- I put my faith on this trade as I rate it A class. I gave chance  although price hovering around until NY session.

- During NY session, then price really took off.

- I close trade while still not achieve my exit plan (2R) as I saw price struggle to push higher.

- Price did not reach my 2R profit until end of NY session.

- Should I tighten my stop a little bit because of A class trade?. This will increase my RR ratio.

 

1 Sept 2021 (Sample Trade): EURAUD (short)

 This is sample trade that can be taken on 1 Sept 2021. EURAUD short trade. This is a cheese trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Session Breaks Strength Number:- EURAUD (+4 / +7)

Fundamental:-  EUR got good release on unemployment rate (7.6% / 7.6% / 7.8%). For AUD news also good according to GDP release (YoY) (Q2) (9.6% / 9.2% / 1.3%). Both currencies have good result.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

(the strength number consider tight & fundamental show good release. therefor I rate this trade as C)

Post Analysis:-

- I purposely record this sample to how a C class trade that did not perform.

- Although it has set up but strength number and fundamental did not show any favor to either currency.

- This C trade should be manage carefully.

- Max profit around 0.85R only for the entire day.

11 August 2021: NZDJPY (long)

 This was a sample trade that can be taken on 11 August 2021

Pre Analysis:- 

Correlation:- NZDJPY (12 / 2), clearly NZD stronger than JPY

Market State:- NZDJPY traded under buyer's territory as shown on the H1 chart below

Session Breaks:- NZD broke NY / Asia session with strong sentiment (5 pairs)

While JPY also broke NY / Asia session with weak sentiment (6 pairs)

Fundamental:- there was no news release for both NZD and JPY, all news sentiment for both currency considered outdated.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(all 3 element backed for NZDJPY long trade: correlation, market state/territory & session breaks. only fundamental news not back-up this trade, thus a B class trade was classified.)

Entry:- pullback / digestion after session breaks

Pullback:- the first pullback (1) show slow & not aggressive pullback, no (2) pullback unable to make lower low & no 3 pullback also unable to make new low this all line up and show inability of price to go down. after that range appear & forming close to the NY opening time. trade can be enter on the opening hour of NY session as show on the chart above.

Stop:- stop placed under the pullback area that unable to break, this trade should not break that area to see price mark-up higher. stop was 10 pips lower than entry price.

Exit:- trail the profit for max 

Post Analysis:-

- Trade can produce roughly 3.5R profit max.

- Preparation before NY opening hour is very important, it should be done at least 30 minutes before opening market.

28 July 2021: NZDUSD (short trade)

Sample trade that can be taken on 28 July 2021.

Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- NZDUSD (3 / 11)

Market State:- price traded on down channel & price near the top channel, thus short trade was very logical.

Session:- NZD broke Asia session (weak). 5 pairs

Fundamental:- USD news sentiment was strong, there was CB Consumer Confident released & sentiment was strong for USD.

Trading Plan:-

Trade classification:- A trade

Entry:- wait for pullback/digestion & entry in money spot area

Exit:- as A class trade, exit follow trailing profit. be aware of FOMC news release at 2:00 am

Chart:-

Post Analysis:-

27 July 2021: EURNZD (long trade)

 Sample trade that can be taken on 27 July 2021.

Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- EURNZD (6 / 5), tight correlation.

Market State:- referring to H4 chart, price traded on a big range and price traded near the bottom of the range. This shows long trade was logic.

Session:- NZD broke the Asia session (weak) on all of it pairs.

Fundamental:- there was no new fundamental news released, all news sentiment was about 1 or 2 weeks old.

Trading Plan:-

Trade classification:- B trade

Entry:- wait for pullback/digestion & money spot.

Exit:- trail the profit for max 

Time of entry:- around 8:00pm (NY opening)

Chart:-

Post Analysis:-

My mistake:-

- I did not focus on market opening in this case NY opening.

- I need to prepare 30 minutes before opening hours be it NY or Frankfurt/London.