USDCAD long trade
Pre- Analysis:-
Correlation:- USDCAD (11 / 3) USD stronger than CAD, long trade most suitable
Market Territory:- price for USDCAD traded under buyer's territory
Session Breaks:- USD group broke Asia session with strong sentiment. (5 pairs)
CAD group broke Asia session with weak sentiment. (6 pairs)
Fundamental:- USD unemployment claim data release today and it shows strong data for USD
(348K / 362K / 377K).
While for CAD, news release was yesterday (18/8/21) for CPI and it shows strong data for CAD also, furthermore oil inventory also shows stronger sentiment for CAD.
These data might contradict each other as both currency have stronger release.
Trading Plan:-
Trade Classification:- B trade
(factors such as correlation, territory & session breaks back this long trade. only fundamental news was conflicting. thus a B trade class was set.)
Entry:-
Pullback details:-
- the circle area marking show seller try but unable to make lower low, few try but failed.
- finally after seller fail to break down, range forming and entry can be taken inside the range area.
Entry:- 1.27657 (10:17pm)
Lot Size: 0.51
Stop:- 1.27407 (25 pips)
Risk: 1% ($ 100)
Exit: trail the profit
Post Analysis:-
- entry execute very well, price started to rise not long after entry.
- 10:37pm reduce risk to half
- 10:59 pm move stop to breakeven
- after move stop to BE, things went very uncomfortable as price came back aggressive toward my entry point. at first price already reach 2R profit before turn back down.
- under pressure I lost hope that this trade will go back up again and decided to close the trade for only $ 19.97 profit only.
- my ability to hold the trade and trail for max profit is not there yet, I am vulnerable to the aggressive price went against me.
- I have decided for this FTMO challenge account, I will set trade at default 2R only.
- I only change to trading style of holding / trailing profit if I able control my vulnerability against aggressive price and when I am experience enough.
- this lost of potentially huge profit trade make me frustrated.
- but trading must be according to plan this need to be follow strictly, do not let frustration control you.
Here is the trade that produce huge profit if I am able to hold until the next day of 20 August 2021, it will give profit of 5R.
