5 August 2021: EURCAD (short)

 This was a sample trade that can be taken on 5 August 2021.

Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- EURCAD (4 / 5) tight correlation

Market State:- price traded under seller's territory

Session Breaks:- CAD broke NY session with strong sentiment (5 pairs)

While for EUR there was 3 pairs broke NY session with weak sentiment.

Fundamental:- News release for EUR show weakness with (*) and CAD release was strong also with (*). In term for fundamental there was no significant or clear direction.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

Entry:-

How this trade can be enter, there was a pullback after broke of NY session. At the blue color box there was no activity, then after that price surge up aggressively.

- After surge up immediately price crash down and this creates memory on the top (that area/price may use as an area for entry)

- After drop aggressive price try to go up again and when it reach area of previous drop memory it creates range, then inside that range entry could be activate.

Stop:-  as this was a C trade then stop should not be tight

Exit:- plan to exit at previous low as this is C trade but if price drop aggressive then trade can be hold a little bit longer. 2R trade also can be a good exit as this trade only C trade class.

Post Analysis:-

 

4 August 2021: NZDUSD (long trade)

 This was sample trade that can be taken on 4 Aug 2021

Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- NZDUSD (11 / 2) NZD better strength than USD

Market State: price traded under buyer's territory as shown on the H1 chart

Session:- All NZD pairs broke NY session on strong sentiment

Fundamental:- NZD got strong sentiment on employment data released earlier today, while USD show weakness through ISM manufacturing PMI data on 2 Aug 2021.

Chart:-

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification: A trade

Entry:-  Long trade, wait for pullback / digestion & enter a trade on range after that (can be taken during Frankfurt opening)

Exit:- trail for max profit

Stop: set stop below recent low in this case can be 10 pips

Post Analysis:-

- Very decent 3.4R max trade

- Correlation good, market state good, session breaks help & fundamental also support this trade.

My actual trade:-

Entry:- (buy) 0.70760 (0.65 lot) 6:15pm

Stop:- 0.70610

Exit:- 0.70698 7:06pm (scratch the trade at 7 pips instead of 15 pips stop)

Loss:- $40.30

- My trade shown on chart above

- My entry not good, after price surge up during Frankfurt / London session it start to pullback again.

- Reading on pullback very important, the better entry shown below

- Always wait for range to develop before entry (entry only inside of that range)

- Range develop after digestion remember that!

- Although this trade will not give profit, but you can see trade can scratch after initially surge up by move the stop to break even

- Stop move to break even as we wait for another important news for USD in this case ISM services PMI.

2 August 2021: USDCAD (short)

 Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:-  USDCAD (4 / 9), correlation favors CAD as stronger than USD

Market State:- I believed price traded under sellers territory as shown in H4 chart below.

Session:- USD broke Asia session on weakness sentiment. (6 pairs)

Fundamental:- none of news release was new, all news release from last week. Although CAD sentiment strong that was for last week (oil as well) and I consider it as outdated.

Chart:-

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:-  B trade

Entry:- as pullback happen I try to enter a trade inside the range.

Exit:- try to trail for max profit

Stop:- set stop

Entry:- (sell) 1.24587 (0.68 lot) (time: 17:03)

Stop:- 1.24767

Exit:- (scratch the trade) 1.24708 (time: 17:29)

Loss:- $ 65.98

Post Analysis:-

My mistake:-

- regarding entry, this is another a toss coin trade. the entry was wrong, the range did not show slowing down sign. range that slow should show inability to go up again, then there will be an entry if you need to entry.

- another data need to look out is regarding session break. not only look at USD session break to determine power has activate but check also CAD, does CAD also has significant session break. this combination will strengthen the pre analysis.

- for next trade, during pre analysis please check for both currency their session breaks. in this trade USD show weakness by 6 pairs broke Asia session but CAD did not show strong breaks infect it show breaks to weakness in a few pairs.

- below sample of better trade with very good pre analysis condition.

- for USDJPY, USD broke Asia session with 6 pairs and JPY broke the same session with 3 pairs. this show safe trade for USDJPY short.

- this trade will give you decent profit.

- improve as well on my pairs selection. the analysis seem to be ok but be careful on trade selection.

 

30 July 2021: CADJPY (long trade)

 This was a sample trade that can be taken on 30 July 2021

Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- CADJPY (12 / 5) significant strength for CAD.

Market State:- price traded on uptrend as shown on H4 chart. on 30 July price started to show pullback phase and on slow down mode.

Session:- price broke Asia session during London session and show weakness for JPY. (5 pairs)

Fundamental:- although CAD show weak news sentiment but Oil show some strength news release. for JPY there was no important news release this week. This may favor CAD for stronger currency compared to JPY.

Chart:-

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- A trade

Entry:- point of entry during NY opening by following pullback that slowdown and forming of V formation (as shown on M15 & M5 chart). After V formation there was session break to upward and I should wait for digestion before enter a trade.

Exit:- trail profit for max

Stop:- I can put stop tight under money spot area as no news release was scheduled at that time.

Post Analysis:-

- Max 3.6R trade was possible

- Try to find more trade like this

- This was cheese trade criteria.

- Trade can also be taken during Frankfurt opening as V formation already set up & range occur after that so the reward will be higher