26 August 2021: EURCHF (long trade)

 Trade on 26 Aug 2021, EURCHF

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation: EURCHF (10 / 1)

Session Breaks:- EUR broke Asia session with strong sentiment (6 pairs). For CHF, it broke Asia session with weak sentiment (7 pairs).

Fundamental:- No news event for both currencies.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(correlation & session breaks support this long trade. no data on fundamental . therefore I rate this trade as B trade.)

Pullback:-

- Notice 3 time sellers try to push price down, all failed.

-The third try it failed and made a lower high before forming a range.

- As price broke high on that range, I took a trade.

Entry:- 1.07895 (7:53pm)

Lot Size:- 0.76

Stop:- 1.07775 (12 pips)

Risk:- 1% ($ 100)

Exit:- 2R profit

Post Analysis:-

- Loss trade 

- My condition at this trade affected by previous trade USDCHF that lost.

- As price came down fast toward my stop, I feel uncomfortable and fear that it will hit stop and another loss trade.

- If I let this trade hit stop, than for this trading day I might loss more than $ 100 (bigger than 1% of  account balance).

- I decided to close trade as fear hijacked my mind completely.

- This trade ended loss $ 62.99.

- This show if I made mistake on previous trade (my entry was wrong), than the impact on the next trade will be huge. Here is example when I was very fearful and ended up lose.

- The correct trade management was, let this trade run and it may end with small profit or worse case break even.

- This trade also not performing. For the entire day this trade will not give much profit.

26 August 2021: USDCHF (long)

 Long trade USDCHF 26 August 2021

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- USDCHF (8 / 1), USD stronger than CHF

Session Breaks:- USD broke Asia session with strong sentiment. (5 pairs). For CHF, it broke Asia session with weak sentiment (6 pairs)

Fundamental:- no news event for both currency.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(no news event to support this trade, therefore I class this trade as B)

Pullback detail:-

- 3 sellers action marked with circle as shown on above chart.

- all sellers failed to make lower low.

- after third try price jump up aggressive.

- price made range after that, entry inside this range.

Entry:- 0.91748 (5:00pm)

Lot Size:- 0.51

Stop:- 0.91568 (18 pips)

Risk:- 1% ($100)

Exit:- TP at 2R

Post Analysis:-

- I made mistake here on my entry.

- look at the range, it did not break up to the north but came down and lower.

- I should only take this trade if price broke higher from range.

- I closed trade before it hit my stop, this reduce a little bit of loss.

- a good entry can be taken somewhere in (A) area.

- there is range also develop but it broke lower again.

- after an attempt to go lower but immediately price get up again, candle form like a 'railroad track', this can be use as entry point.

- after entry at that area, trade can be manage to secure at least small profit.

- it did not perform well for this trade but for sure with more sharp skill, loss can be avoided.

- obviously trade was not ready yet when I took it.

- so far preparation seem to be ok but timing on entry got issue, need more practice and experience.

25 August 2021 (Sample Trade): AUDJPY (long)

 Sample trade that can be taken on 25 August 2021, AUDJPY long trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- AUDJPY (12 / 1), very obvious AUD stronger than JPY

Session Breaks:- AUD broke Asia session with strong sentiment.(4 pairs) JPY broke Asia session with weak sentiment (6 pairs). the power on AUD was not high as only 4 pairs broke Asia session, we need at least 5 pairs.

Fundamental:- there was no news event for both AUD & JPY

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

( only correlation show convincing data, while session breaks lack of power on AUD side, therefore this trade is C class.)

- as C trade, entry can be with only half of the risk or take on full (1%) risk but target for easy 1R only.

Pullback:-

- all sellers marked with circle as above, all attempt of seller failed

- one shock buyer came in broke the previous swing high, then immediately form a range.

- price broke range aggressively to above, that where entry can be initiate.

Post analysis:-

- max profit 2.14R (for entire trading day)

- I miss this trade even though I saw this set up happen, I unable to take this trade.

- What when wrong? as I loss on NZDCHF trade previously, I got frustrated and decided to call it off for that day.

- I decided not to take any trade & watch football match.

- While watching football I still peep into the chart and saw AUDJPY set up.

- I check all the data regarding AUDJPY and it shows a trade may has potential, but as I decided early not to take trade then it fly up without me.

- it seem that my working hours need to be set from 2:00pm till midnight, between that time no nothing such as movie, YouTube, football match etc. 

- miss another good trade

- seem like trade that I took did not perform well but trade that I missed perform fantastically.

25 August 2021: NZDCHF (long trade)

 NZDCHF long trade

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- NZDCHF (14/4), 

Session Breaks:- NZD broke Asia session with strong sentiment (4 pairs). While CHF broke NY session with weak sentiment (5 pairs). Notice on different session breaks.

Fundamental:- NZD news on 24 Aug 2021, retail sales (qoq) (q2) is better 3.3% compare to previous quarter 2.8%.

No news for CHF.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(correlation & fundamental news give confident for NZDCHF long trade. but session breaks a bit not align as NZD group broke Asia session while CHF broke NY session. therefore B class trade was classified.)

Entry:-

Pullback:-

- all sellers marked with (1) (2) (3) (4). sellers unable to make lower low

- small range develop just after seller (4) failed, first entry (A) initiate after that range.

- second entry at (B)

Risk:- 

Trade (A) with 1% risk

Trade (B) with 0.5% risk

Post Analysis:-

- entry was not good

- should not entry for second time

- re-look entry at before seller (4), as shock buyer perform before seller (3), small range occur after that also there is probe went down the small range.

- if entry was made at that point, this trade will give profit provided stay hold onto it even the price try to come back down.

- trade (A) if I hold, it will hit stop anyway.

- trade (B) I have no explanation why I made it, this need to be avoided.

- this is example of a trade that has potential to profit but lack of skill will lead to poor entry and will also damage your account.