31 August 2021: EURCAD (long trade)

 This is purely technical trade, EURCAD long

- This is base on technical analysis trade.

- Price under buyer's territory, the pullback that came down is for buy.

- Study of sellers from series of lower low until it reach previous breach area.

- Then price show no lower low and form a V formation and wait for test that holding.

Entry:-

- I dissect the entry timeframe to M15 & M3.

- I decided to use session break on NY to time my entry.

- Pullback as seen in M3 timeframe is after price broke NY session.

- I read the pullback / digestion & finally the range appear around NY session opening.

- Stop set at much wider as the is important news pending for CAD (GDP news). This to ensure I able to scratch trade without full risk in case trade not working.

Entry:- 1.48976 (8:23pm)

Lot Size:- 0.38

Stop:- 1.48646 (33 pips)

Risk:- 1% ($100)

Exit:- 1R profit / previous swing high @ 1.49259

Post Analysis:-

- Trade ended with $73.17 profit (0.73R)

- TP ideally at previous swing high & the stop should be set at potential 1R profit.

- Trade base on technical only.

- Alternative entry can be around test price after V formation and this will give higher RR ratio.

- Preparation all good, timing also good but need improvement on exiting the trade.

- If preparation at level of pro trader, this trade can possibly go to 2R profit.

- In my opinion ideal entry point should be at the test after V formation.

 

30 August 2021: EURCHF (long)

 EURCHF long trade

Pre-Analysis:-

Strength Number: EURCHF (+3 / -7) CHF is very weak

Fundamental:- No news event for both currencies.

Market Territory:- Price traded under buyer's territory.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(correlation / strength number & market territory support this long trade. only fundamental show no data to support this trade. therefore I class this trade as B class trade.)

The pullback:-

- There is no much selling pressure as we look at M15 chart

- All small sellers unable to break lower.

- Finally there is buyers kind of aggressive as shown in label (A) up move.

- After seller failed again following the buyer at (A), then I took an entry after that.

Entry:- 1.08124 (10:22pm)

Lot size:- 0.01

Stop:- 1.07954 (17 pips)

Exit:- 1.08464 close trade at 2R profit

Post Analysis:-

- I took this trade for 0.01 lot only as my training on how to manage a trade.

- The set up kind of not convincing me to take at normal risk that I practice.

- Price went up very slow and the trade was not going anywhere.

- Finally at 12:22 midnight I decided to close this trade, it did not perform at all.

- Max price went to 0.74R only.

27 August 2021 (sample trade): AUDCHF (long)

 This is sample trade that can be taken on 27 August 2021, AUDCHF long trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Strength Number:- AUDCHF (+7 / -3) AUD stronger than CHF, but I think AUD is not the strongest is compare to CHF.

Fundamental:- AUD news event was negative, retail sales (mom) (Jul) (-2.7% / -2.3% / -1.8%). While for CHF there is no news event.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- C trade

(although AUD is stronger than CHF but it is not the strongest & fundamental has conflict for this long trade. therefore I class this trade as C)

- AUDCHF broke Asia session & I should wait for pullback, read the pullback carefully & time my entry at the very logical point. 

- There was quite a long range (meaning that no activity).

- Then there is small range forming.

- That small range was broken to downside (this will activate sellers).

- But the price jump back up immediately (a probe), this can be an entry point.

- As this is C class trade, therefore plan for exit at 1R profit.

Post Analysis:-

- The 1R profit reach easily.

- Max profit around 1.65R.

- I purposely choose this trade as an example because, it happen in front of me while I am observing the AUD group of currencies.

- I need to always remember this, if you are going to buy you need sellers and vice versa. 

- I not trade this set-up simply because previous day actual trade was bad I lost more than $100 and this put me into state of fear (fear of losing). 

- Need more control on emotion/psychology.

26 August 2021: EURCHF (long trade)

 Trade on 26 Aug 2021, EURCHF

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation: EURCHF (10 / 1)

Session Breaks:- EUR broke Asia session with strong sentiment (6 pairs). For CHF, it broke Asia session with weak sentiment (7 pairs).

Fundamental:- No news event for both currencies.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(correlation & session breaks support this long trade. no data on fundamental . therefore I rate this trade as B trade.)

Pullback:-

- Notice 3 time sellers try to push price down, all failed.

-The third try it failed and made a lower high before forming a range.

- As price broke high on that range, I took a trade.

Entry:- 1.07895 (7:53pm)

Lot Size:- 0.76

Stop:- 1.07775 (12 pips)

Risk:- 1% ($ 100)

Exit:- 2R profit

Post Analysis:-

- Loss trade 

- My condition at this trade affected by previous trade USDCHF that lost.

- As price came down fast toward my stop, I feel uncomfortable and fear that it will hit stop and another loss trade.

- If I let this trade hit stop, than for this trading day I might loss more than $ 100 (bigger than 1% of  account balance).

- I decided to close trade as fear hijacked my mind completely.

- This trade ended loss $ 62.99.

- This show if I made mistake on previous trade (my entry was wrong), than the impact on the next trade will be huge. Here is example when I was very fearful and ended up lose.

- The correct trade management was, let this trade run and it may end with small profit or worse case break even.

- This trade also not performing. For the entire day this trade will not give much profit.