8 Nov 2021: EURUSD (short trade)

 EURUSD short trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

- EURUSD show possible sign of weakness.

- It probably a no result from effort condition and price may drop.

Entry:-

- Reason for entry on 15 minutes timeframe was, an upthrust bar

- Risk of 1% ($ 100)

Post Analysis:-

- A loss trade ($ 90.88)

- Terrible mistake on this trade. Trade influenced by fear of missing out.

- The higher timeframe hourly show price still above MA trend line. It may indicate buying still present. 

- Trade should be taken with price below MA trend line, this is rule do not break trading rule follow exactly.

- Be patient !!!

- Wait for the right setup according to trading rules. Although the background show weakness but the setup wasn't there.

Alternative Trade:-

GBPCAD long trade

- GBPCAD show strength with I believed bottom reversal indication. With volume very high it show sign of reversal.

- Once it broke high of the reversal bar than expect price to go higher.

- Price then push above MA trend line, it add more strength to it

- On 15 minutes chart test bar appear.

- When price broke high of the test bar it indicates the test was successful.

- Potential profit of 6.58R

 

27 Oct 2021 (Trade Example): GBPCHF

 GBPCHF short trade

Pre-Analysis:-

- GBPCHF probably trending down and may form the first higher low area.

- There was a sign of weakness on top of that.

- The SOW most probably a no result from effort. As price push high with very high volume but the next 2 bar close low.

Entry:-

- As weakness confirm, then on lower timeframe M15, price broke lower and took out the low of effort bar as shown with arrow on the chart.

- Now for entry wait for no demand or upthrust bar.

- In this case no demand bar appear, sell order could be place below that no demand bar.

- Entry: 1.26560

- Stop: 1.26710

- TP: 1.2600

- Target profit of 3.7R

Post Analysis:-

- Target hit

- Trade drop smoothly as expected.

25 Oct 2021 (Trade Example): GBPCHF

 GBPCHF long trade

Pre Analysis:-

- Pound futures contract show widespread down bar on climactic volume.

- Try to find any GBP pair with sign of strength.

- GBPCHF has widespread down bar with climactic volume

- As shown above the climactic action happen at old support area to the left of chart.

- This maybe suitable for a long trade.

Entry:-

- After climactic action price found support and went up

- Finally price broke the high of climactic bar.

- We can now wait for no supply test for entry.

- Entry on successful test bar at time around 12:45am (26 Oct 2021)

- Entry: 1.26578, Stop: 1.26280

- Take profit around the old top around 1.27610

Post Analysis:-

Update:-

- Alternative entry after test bar no (1), price took out the high of that bar.

- The reason to entry at that bar is, they test supply from the left. If supply dries up we can expect high price coming.

- Potential profit of 3.86R

 

18 Oct 2021 (Trade Example): USDJPY

 USDJPY long trade

Pre-Analysis:-

- Yen futures show weakness with buying climactic bar (bc) accompanied by ultra high volume.

- USDJPY pair shows it was in uptrend. Any pullback could be potential entry for a long trade.

Entry:-

- As Yen show weakness, than I choose USDJPY for a long trade.

- USDJPY on 15 minute timeframe show selling climactic bar (sc) and also no supply bar (ns) after that.

- It can be use as entry point.

- Time of entry:- 10:00am

Post Analysis:-

- Chart above as at 20 Oct 2021 (2:46pm)

- First trade can be manage to get at least 1R profit.

- Second trade probably a loss trade.

- Third trade show profit. Final profit/loss will be updated base on market condition and signal.

- Update on 21 Oct 2021 (3:11pm), chart below:-

- This trade did not work.

Alternative Trade:-

AUDJPY long trade

Date: 18 Oct 2021

Time: 8:30pm

- Chart as at 20 Oct 2021 (2:49pm)

- Currently at 9.2R profit.

- Update (21 Oct 2021, 3:07pm), chart below

- Max profit of 11R

- Try to get this kind of trade.