9 Nov 2021 (Trade Example): NZDJPY

 NZDJPY short trade

Pre-Analysis:-

- Possible sign of weakness on NZDJPY, looking for short.

- It shows potential buying climax with widespread up bar closing in the middle. Volume ultra high.

- Price broke the lower part of climatic bar and retest it back that area on 9 Nov 2021.

- Find an entry that shows sign of weakness in 15 minutes timeframe.

Entry:-

- Probably a no demand up bar appear as shown on the chart. Next bar was an upthrust.

- Entry when price drop below the upthrust bar.

Post Analysis:-

- The first entry did not do much, price stayed around entry for quite a long period. This may entice me to close the trade or move the stop to breakeven.

- Then during NY session another no demand bar appear this time with low volume and accompanied by an upthrust bar after that.

- Trade can be taken at lower than upthrust bar.

- In this case max profit around 3.79R.

- Another information to support this trade was trending system shows it is in downtrend so it possible to take a short trade. Trending system shows on the chart below.

- The hourly chart trending system still down, thus it support the short trade.

 

8 Nov 2021: EURUSD (short trade)

 EURUSD short trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

- EURUSD show possible sign of weakness.

- It probably a no result from effort condition and price may drop.

Entry:-

- Reason for entry on 15 minutes timeframe was, an upthrust bar

- Risk of 1% ($ 100)

Post Analysis:-

- A loss trade ($ 90.88)

- Terrible mistake on this trade. Trade influenced by fear of missing out.

- The higher timeframe hourly show price still above MA trend line. It may indicate buying still present. 

- Trade should be taken with price below MA trend line, this is rule do not break trading rule follow exactly.

- Be patient !!!

- Wait for the right setup according to trading rules. Although the background show weakness but the setup wasn't there.

Alternative Trade:-

GBPCAD long trade

- GBPCAD show strength with I believed bottom reversal indication. With volume very high it show sign of reversal.

- Once it broke high of the reversal bar than expect price to go higher.

- Price then push above MA trend line, it add more strength to it

- On 15 minutes chart test bar appear.

- When price broke high of the test bar it indicates the test was successful.

- Potential profit of 6.58R

 

27 Oct 2021 (Trade Example): GBPCHF

 GBPCHF short trade

Pre-Analysis:-

- GBPCHF probably trending down and may form the first higher low area.

- There was a sign of weakness on top of that.

- The SOW most probably a no result from effort. As price push high with very high volume but the next 2 bar close low.

Entry:-

- As weakness confirm, then on lower timeframe M15, price broke lower and took out the low of effort bar as shown with arrow on the chart.

- Now for entry wait for no demand or upthrust bar.

- In this case no demand bar appear, sell order could be place below that no demand bar.

- Entry: 1.26560

- Stop: 1.26710

- TP: 1.2600

- Target profit of 3.7R

Post Analysis:-

- Target hit

- Trade drop smoothly as expected.

25 Oct 2021 (Trade Example): GBPCHF

 GBPCHF long trade

Pre Analysis:-

- Pound futures contract show widespread down bar on climactic volume.

- Try to find any GBP pair with sign of strength.

- GBPCHF has widespread down bar with climactic volume

- As shown above the climactic action happen at old support area to the left of chart.

- This maybe suitable for a long trade.

Entry:-

- After climactic action price found support and went up

- Finally price broke the high of climactic bar.

- We can now wait for no supply test for entry.

- Entry on successful test bar at time around 12:45am (26 Oct 2021)

- Entry: 1.26578, Stop: 1.26280

- Take profit around the old top around 1.27610

Post Analysis:-

Update:-

- Alternative entry after test bar no (1), price took out the high of that bar.

- The reason to entry at that bar is, they test supply from the left. If supply dries up we can expect high price coming.

- Potential profit of 3.86R