23 August 2021 (Sample Trade): USDCAD (short)

 Sample trade that can be taken on 23 August 2021, USDCAD short trade.

- trade perform immediately after entry point.

- trade able to reach 2R profit smoothly.

- max profit around 3R for that entire trading day.

23 August 2021: CADJPY (long trade)

 CADJPY long trade.

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- CADJPY (9 / 4). stronger for CAD

Market Territory:- price traded under buyer's territory

Session Breaks:- CAD broke NY session with strong sentiment (6 pairs). While JPY broke NY session with weak sentiment (7 pairs).

Fundamental:- news favor CAD as on Friday (previous trading day) data core retail sales (mom) (Jun) was (4.7% / 4.6% / -2.0%).

While on Monday data for JPY services PMI  (Aug) show contraction 43.5 compared to previous release 47.4

Trading Plan:-

Trade classification:- A trade

(all factors back this CADJPY long trade, therefore an A class trade was classified)

Entry:-

Pullback details:- the sell marked with circle, all sell did not perform. until all sell taken out by aggressive buyers and after that price form sort of consolidation. the entry taken inside consolidation area.

Entry:- 86.290 (5:02 pm)

Lot Size:- 0.68

Stop:- 16 pips (86.130)

Risk:- 1% ($ 100)

Exit:- take profit at 2R (86.620), pre-set TP

Post Analysis:-

- entry was good, price immediately went up. happy with my timing.

- at 5:44pm as price went up, I reduce risk to half.

- after price try to come back down toward my entry, price jump back up. this time after price reach 1R profit, I move stop to BE (7.34pm)

- price continue to went up until very close to TP price but went down again. at 7:54pm I lock profit at 1R by moving the stop again.

- finally at 8:27pm price hit my stop and trade close at $ 98.85 profit close to 1R.

- price eventually went up until max of 2.95R for entire session trading yesterday.

- need improvement on exiting the trade.

- one more thing I need to consider put stop tighter as this was an A class trade. this will give better RR ratio. (but this also increasing chances of being hit)

20 August 2021 (Sample Trade): EURGBP & GBPCHF

 Sample trade that can be taken on 20 August 2021, EURGBP (long trade) & GBPCHF (short trade). Both trade was purely technical trade. One additional information is on news fundamental for GBP, retail sales (mom) (Jul) release bad for GBP (-2.5% / 0.4% / 0.2%). This news release give back-up for both trade that show weakness in GBP

EURGBP (long trade):-

GBPCHF (short trade):-

Note:- I am unable to take this trade as the set-up appear at or after midnight.

19 August 2021: USDCAD (long trade)

 USDCAD long trade

Pre- Analysis:-

Correlation:- USDCAD (11 / 3) USD stronger than CAD, long trade most suitable

Market Territory:- price for USDCAD traded under buyer's territory

Session Breaks:- USD group broke Asia session with strong sentiment. (5 pairs)

CAD group broke Asia session with weak sentiment. (6 pairs)

Fundamental:- USD unemployment claim data release today and it shows strong data for USD

(348K / 362K / 377K).

While for CAD, news release was yesterday (18/8/21) for CPI and it shows strong data for CAD also, furthermore oil inventory also shows stronger sentiment for CAD. 

These data might contradict each other as both currency have stronger release.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(factors such as correlation, territory & session breaks back this long trade. only fundamental news was conflicting. thus a B trade class was set.)

Entry:-

Pullback details:- 

- the circle area marking show seller try but unable to make lower low, few try but failed.

- finally after seller fail to break down, range forming and entry can be taken inside the range area.

Entry:- 1.27657 (10:17pm)

Lot Size: 0.51

Stop:- 1.27407 (25 pips)

Risk: 1% ($ 100)

Exit: trail the profit

Post Analysis:-

- entry execute very well, price started to rise not long after entry.

- 10:37pm reduce risk to half

- 10:59 pm move stop to breakeven

- after move stop to BE, things went very uncomfortable as price came back aggressive toward my entry point. at first price already reach 2R profit before turn back down.

- under pressure I lost hope that this trade will go back up again and decided to close the trade for only $ 19.97 profit only.

- my ability to hold the trade and trail for max profit is not there yet, I am vulnerable to the aggressive price went against me.

- I have decided for this FTMO challenge account, I will set trade at default 2R only.

- I only change to trading style of holding / trailing profit if I able control my vulnerability against aggressive price and when I am experience enough.

- this lost of potentially huge profit trade make me frustrated.

- but trading must be according to plan this need to be follow strictly, do not let frustration control you.

Here is the trade that produce huge profit if I am able to hold until the next day of 20 August 2021, it will give profit of 5R.