19 August 2021: USDCAD (long trade)

 USDCAD long trade

Pre- Analysis:-

Correlation:- USDCAD (11 / 3) USD stronger than CAD, long trade most suitable

Market Territory:- price for USDCAD traded under buyer's territory

Session Breaks:- USD group broke Asia session with strong sentiment. (5 pairs)

CAD group broke Asia session with weak sentiment. (6 pairs)

Fundamental:- USD unemployment claim data release today and it shows strong data for USD

(348K / 362K / 377K).

While for CAD, news release was yesterday (18/8/21) for CPI and it shows strong data for CAD also, furthermore oil inventory also shows stronger sentiment for CAD. 

These data might contradict each other as both currency have stronger release.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade

(factors such as correlation, territory & session breaks back this long trade. only fundamental news was conflicting. thus a B trade class was set.)

Entry:-

Pullback details:- 

- the circle area marking show seller try but unable to make lower low, few try but failed.

- finally after seller fail to break down, range forming and entry can be taken inside the range area.

Entry:- 1.27657 (10:17pm)

Lot Size: 0.51

Stop:- 1.27407 (25 pips)

Risk: 1% ($ 100)

Exit: trail the profit

Post Analysis:-

- entry execute very well, price started to rise not long after entry.

- 10:37pm reduce risk to half

- 10:59 pm move stop to breakeven

- after move stop to BE, things went very uncomfortable as price came back aggressive toward my entry point. at first price already reach 2R profit before turn back down.

- under pressure I lost hope that this trade will go back up again and decided to close the trade for only $ 19.97 profit only.

- my ability to hold the trade and trail for max profit is not there yet, I am vulnerable to the aggressive price went against me.

- I have decided for this FTMO challenge account, I will set trade at default 2R only.

- I only change to trading style of holding / trailing profit if I able control my vulnerability against aggressive price and when I am experience enough.

- this lost of potentially huge profit trade make me frustrated.

- but trading must be according to plan this need to be follow strictly, do not let frustration control you.

Here is the trade that produce huge profit if I am able to hold until the next day of 20 August 2021, it will give profit of 5R.

   

18 August 2021: USDJPY (long trade)

 This was a sample trade that can be taken on 18 August 2021. This trade was a pure technical trade.

Pre Analysis:-

Market Territory:- price traded under buyer's territory as shown on the chart below. thus this trade suitable for a long trade.

Trading Plan:-

- price went up aggressive, for entry we need a pullback.

- the pullback shown below.

- entry should be done after V formation & test phase that holding.

Post Analysis:-

- trade will give max 4R profit

 

17 August 2021: AUDJPY (short trade)

AUDJPY short trade on 17 August 2021

 Pre Analysis:-

Correlation:- AUDJPY (2 / 10) significant strength to JPY

Market Territory:- price traded under seller's territory as shown on the chart below (H1)

Session Breaks:- AUD group broke Asia session with weak sentiment (6 pairs)

JPY group broke Asia session with strong sentiment (5 pairs)

Fundamental:- there was no news release for both currencies.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- B trade 

(factors such as correlation, territory & session breaks support this short trade. only fundamental shows no clear direction for both currencies, thus a B class trade was classified)

Entry:-

Entry:- 79.673 (short) 8:02pm

Volume:- 0.72

Risk:- $100 (1%)

Stop:- 79.821 (15 pips)

- money spot / range area marked with no (4)

Post Analysis:-

- close trade with $ 29.63 loss

- thought that no (4) area was money spot & entry made inside this area.

- the surge of price upward made me panic, I don't want to loose in full so decided to close the trade (to avoid loss in full risk).

- the stop not trigger at all and price came back down.

- should I re enter at area marked by (A)? how to calm down & re enter after I loss?

- should I let the trade go and take out my stop at any time of trading?

- this trade also shows price did not hit my stop, this pullback also unable to create new high.

- if this trade hold, it will give max profit of 2.3R

- comment: preparation was ok, pullback reading was ok, execution was ok. the only question was should I let trade loss at full risk?

- side note, during this trading day, there were 6 group of currencies broke either NY or Asia session.

- USD, JPY, CHF on strong sentiment while NZD, AUD, CAD on weak sentiment.

- this made pair selection even difficult in my opinion.

- alternative way, maybe after I loss around $27 I should re enter the trade at (A) area but with the remaining $73 risk as I always set my max loss per day at $100 only.

- during the price surge up after my entry of course I did not know price will continue to go up.

- this re entry will function as a second chance but still within risk control that I use.

16 August 2021: CADJPY (short)

 CADJPY short trade on 16 August 2021

Pre-Analysis:-

Correlation:- CADJPY (1 / 14) significant JPY strong.

Territory:- price traded under seller's territory as shown on the H1 chart

Session Breaks:- JPY group broke NY session with strong sentiment (6 pairs)

CAD group broke NY session with weak sentiment (6 pairs)

Fundamental:- there is news release today for JPY. GDP (qoq) (q2) shows good news for JPY (0.3% / 0.2% / -1.0%)

no news release for CAD, all sentiment for CAD was old and consider outdated.

Trading Plan:-

Trade Classification:- A trade (all factors, correlation, market territory, session breaks and fundamental news back this CADJPY short trade. thus an A class trade was classified.)

Entry:- 

Entry: 87.149 (0.91 lot) (5:36pm)

Stop: 87.269

Exit: trail the profit

Risk: 1% ($100)

Post Analysis:-

- around 8:40pm I started to doubt whether this trade will go further, at this time I already move my stop to breakeven but fear was still there.

- I decided to close the trade at 8:41pm as I doubt my trade

- Although the trade class was A but I still have fear at that time.

- How to stick to the trade? this trade performed well and can give max profit of 3.5R but I only manage to grab 0.5R profit only it is totally a waste !!!.